Is the Euro-Area Core Price Index Really More Persistent than the Food and Energy Price Indexes?”

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to measure the degree of persistence of the overall, core, foodand energy Harmonized Indexes of Consumer Prices for the European Monetary Zone (HICP-EAs) andto identify its implications for decision-making in the private sector and in public policy.Using a non-parametric approach, our results demonstrate the presence of a statistically significantlevel of persistence in four HICP-EAs: headline, core, food and energy. Moreover, contrary to popularbelief, the core index does not reflect permanent price changes. We also find evidence that the food andenergy price indexes are more volatile and more persistent than the other two price indexes. Ourresults also show a reduction in persistence for both the headline and the core price indexes after theimplementation of the single monetary policy, but not for food and energy.These results have important implications for both the private sector and for policymakers who usethe core price index as a reference in their decision-making. In particular, core price index can lead toerroneous perception of price movements.